How the UK can remain in

big-ben-620x349Supposedly by now many Brits who have cast a “Leave” vote in Thursday´s Brexit referendum are beginning to realize what they have done to their country, and regretting it. The Pound is plummeting, Scotland is announcing plans for another independence referendum, Northern Ireland is looking into tho option of joining the Irish Republic (a scenario with potential for a civil war!), Spain is trying to use the situation to get control over Gibraltar, and Messrs Schulz and Juncker, the two clowns heading the European Parliament and the European Commission, are telling David Cameron that they want to hold his request to leave the EU in their hands by next Tuesday at the latest.

The good news is that the UK is not obliged to take any orders from Schulz and Juncker.
The Brexit Referendum, whatever its political significance may be, is by no means legally binding on Parliament or on Her Majesty´s Government, and even less does it create any entitlement for the Commission or the European Parliament to see the UK leave. There is no need to rush things.

The decisive point is that if the UK really wants to leave the EU, it has all interest to make sure that this happens under conditions that are not too unfavourable. And that means that this must be done through negotiations for which the UK Government, whoever will be leading it, must prepare itself well. But presenting an application to leave the EU under Article 50 would needlessly weaken the UK´s negotiating position, because it would trigger a two year period for negotiations on the condditions for leaving, after which, if no agreement is reached, the UK will automatically cease to be a Member State. In other words, it would completely use all its membership rights, including, in particular, its access to the common market. This is not someting any British government will want to happen.

Very clearly therefore, the strategy of choice for the UK will be to first negotiate the conditions for leaving, and then (perhaps) leave.

It is necessary that the next Prime Minister, whoever he or she is, understands this – and that he or she is capable of explaining to the British populace why it is better to proceed that way. And ultimately, this would buy enough time to help the population think a second time – and perhaps realise that leaving the EU would ultimately be a fatal error.

Much as one can understand anyone´s wish to be rid of incompetent and arrogant morons like Messers. Schulz and Juncker, the Brits should know better than to precipitate their departure.

 

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